Causes of the Karabakh armed conflict. Nagorno-Karabakh: causes of the conflict

It's hard to believe, but Armenians and Azerbaijanis have been killing and hating each other for decades because of a small geographical area total area of just under four and a half thousand square kilometers. This region is divided into a mountainous region, where the majority of the population was Armenians, and a lowland region, where Azerbaijanis predominated. The peak of clashes between nations occurred at the time of the collapse of the Russian Empire and civil war. After the Bolsheviks won, and Armenia and Azerbaijan became part of the USSR, the conflict was frozen for many years.

Nagorno-Karabakh represents a total area of ​​just under four and a half thousand square kilometers // Photo: inosmi.ru


By the decision of the Soviet government, Nagorno-Karabakh became part of Azerbaijan. The Armenian population could not come to terms with this for a long time, but did not dare to resist this decision. All manifestations of nationalism were harshly suppressed. And yet, the local population always said that they were part of the USSR, and not the Azerbaijan SSR.

Perestroika and Chardakhlu

Even in Soviet era in Nagorno-Karabakh there were clashes on ethnic grounds. However, the Kremlin did not attach any importance to this. After all, there was no nationalism in the USSR, and Soviet citizens were a single people. Mikhail Gorbachev's perestroika, with its democratization and glasnost, thawed the conflict.

In the disputed territory itself, no dramatic events took place, unlike the village of Chardakhlu in the Azerbaijan SSR, where a local party leader decided to replace the head of the collective farm. The former Armenian leader was shown the door and an Azerbaijani was appointed instead. This did not suit the residents of Chardakhlu. They refused to recognize the new boss, for which they were beaten, and some were arrested on false charges. This situation again did not cause any reaction from the center, but the residents of Nagorno-Karabakh began to be indignant at what the Azerbaijanis were doing to the Armenians. After this, demands to annex Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia began to sound very loudly and persistently.

The position of the authorities and first blood

At the end of the eighties, Armenian delegations flocked to Moscow, trying to explain to the center that Nagorno-Karabakh is a primordially Armenian territory, which huge mistake was annexed to Azerbaijan. The leadership was asked to correct historical injustice and return the region to its homeland. These requests were supported by mass rallies in which the Armenian intelligentsia participated. The center listened attentively, but was in no hurry to make any decisions.


Requests to return Nagorno-Karabakh to their homeland were reinforced by mass rallies in which the Armenian intelligentsia participated. The center listened carefully, but was in no hurry to make any decisions // Photo: kavkaz-uzel.eu


Meanwhile, in Nagorno-Karabakh, aggressive sentiment against its neighbor grew by leaps and bounds, especially among young people. The last straw was the march of the Azerbaijanis to Stepanakert. Its participants sincerely believed that in the largest city of Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenians were brutally killing Azerbaijanis, which in fact was not even close to the truth. A crowd of distraught avengers was met by a police cordon near Askeran. Two Azerbaijanis were killed during the suppression of the riot. These events led to mass pogroms in Sumgait, a satellite city of Baku. Azerbaijani nationalists killed twenty-six Armenians and inflicted various injuries on hundreds. The pogrom was stopped only after troops were brought into the city. After this, war became inevitable.

Crisis

The pogrom in Sumgait led to the fact that Azerbaijanis abandoned everything they had acquired and fled from Armenia, fearing death. The Armenians, who by the will of fate ended up in Azerbaijan, did the same. Real military operations in Nagorno-Karabakh began in 1991 after the collapse of the USSR and the declaration of independence by Azerbaijan and Armenia. Nagorno-Karabakh also declared itself a sovereign state, but its independence foreign countries I was in no hurry to admit.

In the nineties, gangs began an open war in Nagorno-Karabakh, and the number of victims went from dozens to hundreds. The Karabakh war flared up with new strength after the troops of the defunct Ministry of Internal Affairs of the USSR were withdrawn from the disputed territory, who until the last time did not allow the massacre to begin. The armed conflict lasted for three years and was stopped by the signing of an armistice agreement. More than thirty thousand people became victims in this war.

Our days

Despite the truce, clashes in Nagorno-Karabakh did not stop. Neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan wanted to cede the disputed territory. This situation led to an extraordinary rise in nationalism. A neutral, rather than hateful, comment about a neighbor was viewed with suspicion.

For the first time in 22 years, the “frozen” conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh has a real possibility of developing into a full-scale war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. As a result of the war in the early 90s, about 30 thousand people died, almost a million became refugees. Ruposters presents a selection of rare photographs of interethnic conflict in the post-Soviet Transcaucasus.

The territory of modern Nagorno-Karabakh dates back to the 4th century BC. was part of first the Armenian kingdom, then Greater Armenia. After 500 years of being under Arab influence, Karabakh again for a long time (from the 9th to the 18th centuries) became part of the Armenian state entities. In 1813, the territory became part of the Russian Empire.

Khojavend, 1993

USSR President Mikhail Gorbachev was criticized by all sides of the conflict: both the Azerbaijanis (and this despite Gorbachev’s statement in July 1990 that “the patience of the Azerbaijani people has no limits”), and the Armenians (local media published “data” about the Turkic origin of the mother of the head of the USSR).

The result of the "Grad" shelling of the city of Martakert, 1992

Armenian clergyman

Azerbaijani grandmother and Armenian fighter, 1993

Numerous foreign mercenaries took part in the Karabakh War (1992-1994). Armenia in the war was supported mainly by representatives of the large Armenian diaspora - in particular fighters from the Dashnaktsutyun party.

Chechen field commanders Basayev, Raduev and Arab Khattab fought on the side of Azerbaijan (an Azerbaijani colonel testifies: “About a hundred Chechen volunteers led by Shamil Basayev and Salman Raduev provided us with invaluable assistance. But due to heavy losses, they were forced to leave the battlefield and leave"). According to Western sources, Azerbaijan has attracted several hundred mujahideen from Afghanistan and the Turkish “Grey Wolves” to its side.

106-year-old Armenian woman, Teh village, January 1, 1990

The war that broke out in Nagorno-Karabakh in the 90s was not the first armed conflict over the disputed territory between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the 20th century. The largest clashes took place in 1918-1921, when Azerbaijan did not recognize the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh. It all ended only in 1921, with the establishment of Soviet power in the Caucasus. Then the disputed territory was annexed to the Azerbaijan SSR. Unrest in Karabakh flared up every now and then throughout the Soviet period.​

Losses on both sides during the war of 1992-1994 amounted to approximately 30 thousand people. The Azerbaijani authorities estimated their losses at approximately 20 thousand people - military and civilian. Another 1 million people are said to have become refugees.

Grape pickers under guard

Cemetery in Stepanakert, 1994

Boy with a toy gun, Stepanakert, 1994

As a result of the war, Nagorno-Karabakh received de facto independence from Azerbaijan. At the same time, the territorial structure of the unrecognized republic is quite specific: almost 14% of the former Azerbaijan SSR fell into the NKR, and at the same time, Azerbaijan still controls 15% of the declared territory of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Azerbaijani writers Shikhli and Semedoglu

The events of February 1992 in the city of Khojaly became one of the darkest pages of the war. After the capture of the city by the NKR self-defense forces, from 180 (data from Humans Rights Watch) to 613 Azerbaijani civilians (according to the Azerbaijani authorities) died. Some sources suggest that these events could have become an “action of retaliation” for the Armenian pogroms in Sumgait (1988) and Baku (1990), the victims of which, according to various estimates, were from several dozen to several hundred people.

Walking to school, 1992

Stepanakert, 1992

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On the night of April 2, an escalation of the armed conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh region was recorded. Countries blame each other for violating the truce. How did the conflict begin and why do many years of disputes around Nagorno-Karabakh persist?

Where is Nagorno-Karabakh located?

Nagorno-Karabakh is a disputed region on the border of Armenia and Azerbaijan. The self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic was founded on September 2, 1991. The 2013 population estimate is over 146,000. The vast majority of believers are Christians. The capital and largest city is Stepanakert.

How did the confrontation begin?
At the beginning of the 20th century, the region was inhabited mainly by Armenians. It was then that this area became the site of bloody Armenian-Azerbaijani clashes. In 1917, due to the revolution and collapse of the Russian Empire, three independent states were proclaimed in Transcaucasia, including the Republic of Azerbaijan, which included the Karabakh region. However, the Armenian population of the area refused to submit to the new authorities. In the same year, the First Congress of Armenians of Karabakh elected its own government - the Armenian National Council.
The conflict between the parties continued until the establishment of Soviet power in Azerbaijan. In 1920, Azerbaijani troops occupied the territory of Karabakh, but after a couple of months the resistance of the Armenian armed forces was suppressed thanks to Soviet troops.
In 1920, the population of Nagorno-Karabakh was granted the right to self-determination, but de jure the territory continued to be subject to the authorities of Azerbaijan. Since that time, not only mass unrest, but also armed clashes have periodically broken out in the region.
In 1987, dissatisfaction with socio-economic policies on the part of the Armenian population increased sharply. The measures taken by the leadership of the Azerbaijan SSR did not affect the situation. Mass student strikes began, and nationalist rallies of many thousands took place in the large city of Stepanakert.
Many Azerbaijanis, having assessed the situation, decided to leave the country. On the other hand, Armenian pogroms began to take place everywhere in Azerbaijan, as a result of which a huge number of refugees appeared.
The regional council of Nagorno-Karabakh decided to secede from Azerbaijan. In 1988, an armed conflict began between Armenians and Azerbaijanis. The territory left the control of Azerbaijan, but a decision on its status was postponed indefinitely.
In 1991, hostilities began in the area with numerous losses on both sides. An agreement on a complete ceasefire and settlement of the situation was reached only in 1994 with the help of Russia, Kyrgyzstan and the CIS Interparliamentary Assembly in Bishkek.

When did the conflict escalate?
It should be noted that relatively recently the long-term conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh again reminded itself. This happened in August 2014. Then clashes on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border occurred between the military of the two countries. More than 20 people died on both sides.

What is happening now in Nagorno-Karabakh?
On the night of April 2, the conflict escalated. The Armenian and Azerbaijani sides blame each other for its escalation.
The Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense claims shelling by the Armenian armed forces using mortars and heavy machine guns. It is alleged that over the past 24 hours, the Armenian military violated the ceasefire 127 times.
In turn, the Armenian military department says that the Azerbaijani side took “active offensive actions” using tanks, artillery and aviation on the night of April 2.

Are there any casualties?
Yes, I have. However, the data on them varies. According to the official version of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, as a result of hostilities died , at least 30 soldiers and 3 civilians. The number of wounded, both civilians and military, has not yet been officially confirmed.

15 years ago (1994), Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia signed the Bishkek Protocol on the cessation of fire in the Karabakh conflict zone from May 12, 1994.

Nagorno-Karabakh is a region in Transcaucasia, de jure part of Azerbaijan. The population is 138 thousand people, the vast majority are Armenians. The capital is the city of Stepanakert. The population is about 50 thousand people.

According to Armenian open sources, Nagorno-Karabakh (the ancient Armenian name is Artsakh) was first mentioned in the inscription of Sardur II, king of Urartu (763-734 BC). In the early Middle Ages, Nagorno-Karabakh was part of Armenia, according to Armenian sources. After most of this country was captured by Turkey and Iran in the Middle Ages, the Armenian principalities (melikdoms) of Nagorno-Karabakh maintained a semi-independent status.

According to Azerbaijani sources, Karabakh is one of the most ancient historical regions of Azerbaijan. According to the official version, the appearance of the term “Karabakh” dates back to the 7th century and is interpreted as a combination of the Azerbaijani words “gara” (black) and “bagh” (garden). Among other provinces, Karabakh (Ganja in Azerbaijani terminology) in the 16th century. was part of the Safavid state, and later became the independent Karabakh Khanate.

According to the Kurekchay Treaty of 1805, the Karabakh Khanate, as a Muslim-Azerbaijani land, was subordinated to Russia. IN 1813 According to the Gulistan Peace Treaty, Nagorno-Karabakh became part of Russia. In the first third of the 19th century, according to the Treaty of Turkmenchay and the Treaty of Edirne, the artificial placement of Armenians resettled from Iran and Turkey in Northern Azerbaijan, including Karabakh, began.

On May 28, 1918, the independent state of the Azerbaijan Democratic Republic (ADR) was created in Northern Azerbaijan, retaining its political power over Karabakh. At the same time, the declared Armenian (Ararat) Republic put forward its claims to Karabakh, which were not recognized by the ADR government. In January 1919, the ADR government created the Karabakh province, which included Shusha, Javanshir, Jebrail and Zangezur districts.

IN July 1921 By decision of the Caucasian Bureau of the Central Committee of the RCP (b), Nagorno-Karabakh was included in the Azerbaijan SSR with the rights of broad autonomy. In 1923, the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Okrug was formed on the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan.

February 20, 1988 An extraordinary session of the regional Council of Deputies of the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Okrug adopted a decision “On a petition to the Supreme Councils of the AzSSR and the Armenian SSR for the transfer of the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Okrug from the AzSSR to the Armenian SSR.” The refusal of the Union and Azerbaijani authorities caused protest demonstrations by Armenians not only in Nagorno-Karabakh, but also in Yerevan.

On September 2, 1991, a joint session of the Nagorno-Karabakh regional and Shahumyan district councils was held in Stepanakert. At the session, a Declaration was adopted on the proclamation of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic within the borders of the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region, the Shahumyan region and part of the Khanlar region of the former Azerbaijan SSR.

December 10, 1991, a few days before the official collapse of the Soviet Union, a referendum was held in Nagorno-Karabakh, in which the overwhelming majority of the population, 99.89%, voted for complete independence from Azerbaijan.

Official Baku recognized this act illegal and abolished the existing Soviet years autonomy of Karabakh. Following this, an armed conflict began, during which Azerbaijan tried to hold Karabakh, and Armenian troops defended the independence of the region with the support of Yerevan and the Armenian diaspora from other countries.

During the conflict, regular Armenian units completely or partially captured seven regions that Azerbaijan considered its own. As a result, Azerbaijan lost control over Nagorno-Karabakh.

At the same time, the Armenian side believes that part of Karabakh remains under the control of Azerbaijan - the villages of the Mardakert and Martuni regions, the entire Shaumyan region and the Getashen subdistrict, as well as Nakhichevan.

In the description of the conflict, the parties provide their figures for losses, which differ from those of the opposing side. According to consolidated data, the losses of both sides during the Karabakh conflict ranged from 15 to 25 thousand people killed, more than 25 thousand wounded, hundreds of thousands of civilians fled their places of residence.

May 5, 1994 With the mediation of Russia, Kyrgyzstan and the CIS Interparliamentary Assembly in the capital of Kyrgyzstan, Bishkek, Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia signed a protocol that went down in the history of the settlement of the Karabakh conflict as the Bishkek Protocol, on the basis of which a ceasefire agreement was reached on May 12.

On May 12 of the same year, a meeting was held in Moscow between the Minister of Defense of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan (now the President of Armenia), the Minister of Defense of Azerbaijan Mammadraffi Mammadov and the commander of the NKR Defense Army Samvel Babayan, at which the parties’ commitment to the previously reached ceasefire agreement was confirmed.

The negotiation process to resolve the conflict began in 1991. September 23, 1991 A meeting of the presidents of Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Armenia took place in Zheleznovodsk. In March 1992, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group to resolve the Karabakh conflict was established, co-chaired by the United States, Russia and France. In mid-September 1993, the first meeting of representatives of Azerbaijan and Nagorno-Karabakh took place in Moscow. Around the same time, a closed meeting between the President of Azerbaijan Heydar Aliyev and the then Prime Minister of Nagorno-Karabakh Robert Kocharyan took place in Moscow. Since 1999, regular meetings have been held between the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia.

Azerbaijan insists on maintaining its territorial integrity, Armenia defends the interests of the unrecognized republic, since the unrecognized NKR is not a party to the negotiations.

After the Black January tragedy, tens of thousands of Azerbaijani communists publicly burned their party cards in the hours when a million-strong crowd in Baku followed the funeral procession. Many PFA leaders were arrested, but they were soon released and were able to continue their activities. Vezirov fled to Moscow; Ayaz Mutalibov succeeded him as party leader of Azerbaijan. Mutalibov's reign from 1990 to August 1991 was "quiet" by Azerbaijani standards. It was characterized by the “enlightened authoritarianism” of the local nomenklatura, which exchanged communist ideology for national symbols and traditions in order to strengthen its power. May 28, the anniversary of the Azerbaijan Democratic Republic of 1918-1920, became a national holiday and official tribute was paid to the Islamic religion. Furman notes that the Baku intelligentsia supported Mutalibov during this period. An advisory council was established with the participation of opposition leaders, and it was with the consent of this council that Mutalibov was first elected president by the Supreme Council of Azerbaijan in the fall of 1990. Of the 360 ​​delegates, only 7 were workers, 2 collective farmers and 22 intellectuals. The rest were members of the party and state elite, directors of enterprises and law enforcement officers. The Popular Front received 31 mandates (10%), and, according to Furman, it had little chance of winning more in an environment of relative stability.

After the Black January crisis in Azerbaijan, which led to military clashes between units of the Soviet Army and units of the Popular Front in Nakhichevan, something like a compromise was reached between Mutalibov and the union leadership: communist rule is restored in Azerbaijan, but in exchange the Center provides political support to Mutalibov - for an account of Armenia and the Armenian movement in Nagorno-Karabakh. The Union leaders, in turn, sought to support Mutalibov, fearing to lose not only Georgia and Armenia, but also the entire Transcaucasus. Attitudes towards Nagorno-Karabakh became even more negative after the ANM won the elections in Armenia in the summer of 1990.

The state of emergency in Nagorno-Karabakh was actually a regime of military occupation. 157 of the 162 “passport check” operations carried out in 1990, whose true purpose was to terrorize civilians, were carried out in ethnically Armenian villages.

By the fall of 1990, after elections in all the republics of Transcaucasia, the communists retained power only in Azerbaijan. Support for the Mutalibov regime acquired even greater significance for the Kremlin, which sought to preserve the unity of the USSR (in March 1991, Azerbaijan voted to preserve the USSR). The blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh was intensified. The strategy, jointly developed by Azerbaijan and senior Soviet military-political figures (especially the future organizers of the August 1991 coup), provided for the deportation of at least part of the population from the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Okrug and adjacent Armenian villages.

The deportation operation was codenamed "Ring". It lasted four months, until the August 1991 coup. During this period, about 10 thousand people were deported from Karabakh to Armenia; Military units and riot police devastated 26 villages, killing 140-170 Armenian civilians (37 of them died in the villages of Getashen and Martunashen). Residents of Azerbaijani villages in NKAO, speaking to independent observers, also spoke about massive violations of human rights by Armenian militants. The operations of the Soviet army in Karabakh only led to the progressive demoralization of the troops themselves. They did not stop the spread of armed struggle in the region.


Nagorno-Karabakh: declaration of independence

After the failure of the August putsch in Moscow, almost all the organizers and instigators of Operation Ring lost their power and influence. In the same August, military formations in the Shaumyan (Azerbaijani name: Goranboy) region received an order to cease fire and retreat to places of permanent deployment. On August 31, the Supreme Council of Azerbaijan adopted a declaration on the restoration of the independent Republic of Azerbaijan, i.e. the one that existed in 1918-1920. For Armenians, this meant that the Soviet-era legal basis for the autonomous status of NKAO was now abolished. In response to the declaration of independence of Azerbaijan, the Karabakh side proclaimed the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR). This was done on September 2, 1991 at a joint meeting of the regional Council of the NKAO and the regional Council of the Shaumyan region populated by Armenians. The NKR was proclaimed within the borders of the former Autonomous Okrug and the Shaumyanovsky district (which was not previously part of the NKAO). On November 26, 1991, the Supreme Council of Azerbaijan adopted a law abolishing the autonomy of Nagorno-Karabakh. On December 10, the Supreme Council of the NKR, consisting exclusively of representatives of the Armenian population, announced its independence and secession from Azerbaijan based on the results of a referendum held among the Armenian population. Armenian legislators have still not resolved the obvious contradiction between the declaration of independence of the NKR and the still unresolved resolution of the Supreme Council of Armenia of December 1, 1989, according to which Nagorno-Karabakh was reunited with Armenia proper. Armenia stated that it has no territorial claims against Azerbaijan. This position allows Armenia to view the conflict as a bilateral one, in which Azerbaijan and NKR are participating, while Armenia itself does not directly participate in the conflict. However, Armenia, following the same logic and for fear of worsening its own position in the world community, does not officially recognize the independence of the NKR. For recent years in Armenia, debates continued on the topic: whether the cancellation of the “annexationist” decision of the Armenian parliament of December 1, 1989 and the official recognition of the NKR will make a full-scale war with Azerbaijan inevitable (Ter-Petrosyan), or whether such recognition will help convince the world community that Armenia is not an aggressor country? Last point view, in particular, was defended in June 1993 by Suren Zolyan, Secretary of the Commission on Artsakh (Karabakh) of the Supreme Council of Armenia. Suren Zolyan argued that while NKR is not recognized as a subject international relations, full responsibility for its actions lies with Armenia, which gives some validity to the thesis about Armenian aggression. In Nagorno-Karabakh itself, a certain uncertainty about whether it should be independent, whether it should be part of Armenia, or whether it should turn to Russia with a request to be included in it is emphasized by the fact that at the end of 1991, the then chairman of the Supreme Council of the NKR G. Petrosyan sent letter to Yeltsin asking for NKR to join Russia. He did not receive an answer. On December 22, 1994, the NKR parliament elected Robert Kocharyan, who had previously been the chairman of the State Defense Committee, as president of the NKR until 1996.


Armenia and Azerbaijan: dynamics of the political process

In the fall of 1990, the head of the ANM Ter-Petrosyan won the general elections and became president of the republic. The ANM, unlike the Armenian opposition, seeks to prevent the republic’s direct participation in the Karabakh conflict and is trying with all its might to limit the scope of the conflict. One of the main concerns of the ANM is to establish good relations with the West. The ANM leadership is aware that Turkey is a NATO member and the main ally of the United States in the region. It recognizes reality, refrains from making claims to the lands of historical Armenia (now located in Turkey), and wants to develop Armenian-Turkish contacts.

Unlike the ANM, the Dashnaktsutyun (Armenian Revolutionary Federation) party, mainly based abroad among the Armenian diaspora, is primarily an anti-Turkish party. Currently, its efforts are focused on organizing public pressure in the West to force Turkey to formally condemn the 1915 genocide. The party has a strong position in Karabakh thanks to its image as a strong, heroic and uncompromising organization, its emphasis on military discipline, numerous connections and significant funds abroad . However, there is intense rivalry between Dashnaktsutyun and President Ter-Petrosyan. In 1992, the latter expelled the Dashnak leader Hrayr Marukhyan from Armenia; in December 1994 he suspended the party, accusing it of terrorism.

Nevertheless, the efforts of the Armenian diaspora have borne fruit. Its lobby in the US Congress in 1992 achieved the adoption of a provision banning all non-humanitarian aid to Azerbaijan until it took “demonstrable steps” to end its blockade of Armenia. In 1993, the United States allocated $195 million in aid to Armenia (Armenia is in second place, after Russia, in the list of aid recipients among all post-Soviet states); Azerbaijan received $30 million.

Seven opposition parties - including, in addition to the Dashnaks, the Union of National Self-Determination, led by former dissident Paruyr Hayrikyan, and the Ramkavar-Azatakan (liberals) - have criticized what they see as Ter-Petrosyan's arbitrariness and arbitrariness in governing the country and the concessions made by the Armenian leadership under pressure from foreign powers and the UN (non-recognition of the NKR, agreement in principle to the withdrawal of NKR troops from the occupied ethnically Azerbaijani regions). Despite Armenia's comparative political stability, the ANM's popularity is declining, largely due to economic hardship caused by the Azerbaijani blockade. Total volume industrial production in the first nine months of 1993 decreased by 38% compared to the corresponding period in 1992. Everyday hardships in besieged Armenia led to mass emigration, estimated at 300-800 thousand in 1993, mainly to Southern Russia and Moscow. The wide discrepancies in the numbers of emigrants are explained by the fact that many of those leaving retained their registration in Armenia.

In Azerbaijan, the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh also determines the rise and fall of the fortunes of politicians. Until mid-1993, defeats during the war or political crises accompanying the various vicissitudes of the struggle for Karabakh led to the fall of four first secretaries of the Communist Party and presidents in a row: Bagirov, Vezirov, Mutalibov (with the interim presidency of Mamedov and Gambar in May - June 1992). ), again Mutalibov and Elchibey.

The August 1991 coup in Moscow undermined the legitimacy of President Mutalibov in Azerbaijan. During the putsch, he made a statement condemning Gorbachev and indirectly supporting the Moscow putschists. The Popular Front launched rallies and demonstrations demanding new parliamentary and presidential elections. Mutalibov urgently organized presidential elections (September 8, 1991); 85.7% of those included in the lists took part in the voting, of which 98.5% voted for Mutalibov. This result was considered by many to be rigged. The Communist Party was officially dissolved, and on October 30, the Supreme Council of Azerbaijan, under pressure from the Popular Front, was forced to transfer part of its powers to the Milli-Majlis (National Council) consisting of 50 members, half of whom were former communists and the other half from the opposition. The PFA's campaign to eliminate Mutalibov continued, with the latter blaming Russia for abandoning him to his fate. The final blow to Mutalibov came on February 26-27, 1992, when Karabakh forces captured the village of Khojaly near Stepanakert, killing many civilians. Azerbaijani sources claim that the massacre, allegedly carried out with the help of Russian troops (a fact which the Armenian side denies), led to the death of 450 people and 450 were injured. The very fact of the massacres was later confirmed, among others, by a fact-finding mission of the Moscow human rights center Memorial. On March 6, 1992, Mutalibov resigned. Soon after, ex-President Mutalibov expressed doubt about Armenian responsibility for Khojaly, hinting that some of the Azerbaijani civilians may have actually been killed by Azerbaijani forces in order to discredit him. Yagub Mamedov, chairman of the Supreme Council, became interim head of state. The election campaign was in full swing when, on May 9, 1992, news arrived of the fall of Shushi. This made it possible for the ex-communist Supreme Council to annul Mutalibov's resignation, absolving him of blame for Khojaly (May 14). The Milli Majlis was dissolved. The next day, PFA supporters stormed the Supreme Council building and seized the presidential palace, forcing Mutalibov to flee to Moscow. On May 18, the Supreme Council accepted Mamedov’s resignation, elected PFA member Isa Gambara as interim president and transferred its powers back to the Milli-Majlis, which it had abolished three days ago. In new elections held in June 1992, the leader of the Popular Front, Abulfaz Elchibey, was elected president (76.3% of those who took part in the vote; 67.9% in favor).

Elchibey promised to solve the Karabakh problem in favor of the Azerbaijanis by September 1992. The main points of the PFA program were as follows: pro-Turkish, anti-Russian orientation, defending the independence of the republic, refusal to join the CIS and speaking in favor of a possible merger with Iranian Azerbaijan (a trend that alarmed Iran). Although Elchibey's government included a large number of brilliant intellectuals who had never been part of the nomenklatura, the attempt to purge the government apparatus of old corrupt officials failed, and the new people brought to power by Elchibey found themselves isolated, and some of them became corrupt in their turn. In early May 1993, popular discontent resulted in anti-government rallies in a number of cities, including Ganja, after which many members of the opposition Milli Istiglal Party (National Independence Party) were arrested. The popularity of Heydar Aliyev, a former member of the Politburo and later the head of Nakhichevan, who managed to maintain peace on the border of his autonomous region with Armenia, increased. Aliyev's New Azerbaijan Party, created in September 1992, became a focal point of the opposition, uniting a wide variety of groups - from neo-communists to members of small national parties and societies. Defeats in battle and secret Russian maneuvers directed against Elchibey led to an uprising in June 1993, led by wealthy wool factory director and field commander Suret Huseynov (hero of Azerbaijan). The latter's triumphant peaceful campaign against Baku ended with the overthrow of Elchibey and his replacement by Aliyev. Suret Huseynov became prime minister. Aliyev revised the policy of the Popular Front: he introduced Azerbaijan into the CIS, abandoned its exclusively pro-Turkish orientation, restored broken ties with Moscow and strengthened the country’s international position (contacts with Iran, Great Britain and France). He also suppressed separatism in the south of the republic (the proclamation of Talysh autonomy by Colonel Aliakram Gumbatov in the summer of 1993).

Nevertheless, internal instability continued in Azerbaijan even after Aliyev came to power. The latter’s relationship with Suret Huseynov soon deteriorated. Aliyev removed Huseynov from negotiating oil (and therefore from appropriating future proceeds from its sale). Huseynov also appeared to oppose Aliyev's exit from the Russian orbit, which took place throughout 1994. In early October 1994, following the signing of an oil contract with a Western consortium on September 20, a coup attempt occurred in Baku and Ganja, with some of the plotters belonged to the circle of supporters of Suret Huseynov. Aliyev suppressed this coup attempt (if there was one: a number of observers in Baku describe it as an intrigue by Aliyev himself) and soon after relieved Huseynov of all duties.


Russian policy towards the conflict (August 1991 - mid-1994)

As the collapse of the USSR became a reality from August 1991 (ending in December), Russia found itself in the position of a country without a specific mission in the military conflict zone in Nagorno-Karabakh, moreover, without common borders with this zone. The end of 1991 was marked by the collapse (temporary?) of imperial ideology and the weakening of control over the army. In conflict zones in the Soviet/Russian forces, almost all decisions were made by an individual officer, at most a general. The processes that began in the army as a result of the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact, the collapse of the USSR and Gaidar’s reforms - mass demobilization, withdrawal of troops from far and near abroad (including Azerbaijan, from where the last Russian troops were withdrawn at the end of May 1993), division of both military contingents, as well as weapons between different republics and the conversion of the military industry - all this aggravated the general chaos in conflict zones. In Nagorno-Karabakh, Abkhazia and Moldova, ex-Soviet mercenaries and filibusters appeared on both sides of the front. Under these conditions, what can be called Russian policy in the region had a random, reactive nature, which it remained until 1992-1993. the slow increase in controllability of the state apparatus has led to some restoration of Russia's ability to formulate and achieve its goals in relations with neighboring countries (although the factor of “hungry and angry” officers waging their local wars “on the edge of the former Soviet empire” still cannot be discounted ).

Since August 1991, Russian policy regarding the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh has developed in the following main directions: attempts at mediation, such as that undertaken by Boris Yeltsin and Kazakh President N. Nazarbayev in September 1991, and later participation in the work of the Minsk the CSCE group, the tripartite initiative (USA, Russia and Turkey) and the conduct of independent missions, such as the one carried out by Ambassador-at-Large V. Kazimirov in 1993 and 1994; withdrawal of Russian armed forces from the conflict zone and distribution of remaining weapons among the newly formed republics; an attempt to maintain military balance in the region and prevent third-party players (Turkey and Iran) from entering its Caucasian zone of influence. With the development of economic reforms in Russia, the economic factor began to play an increasingly important role in the country’s relations with the new republics. In 1993, Russia showed increasing interest in involving Azerbaijan and Georgia in the CIS and serving as the sole peacemaker in the former Soviet republics.

Because Russian troops In Karabakh, having lost their combat mission after August 1991, there was a serious danger of demoralization; in November, the withdrawal of Soviet internal troops from Karabakh began (except for the 366th regiment in Stepanakert). In March 1992, the 366th Regiment literally fell to pieces, as part of its non-Armenian contingent deserted, and the other part, especially Armenian soldiers and officers, captured light and heavy weapons and joined the NKR units.

In the field of diplomacy, Russia tried to maintain a balance between Armenia and Azerbaijan, preventing one of the parties from achieving decisive superiority. According to a bilateral treaty of 1992, Russia pledged to protect Armenia from external (implied: Turkish) intervention, but this treaty was never ratified by the Supreme Council of Russia, which feared Russia would be drawn into the Caucasian conflicts.

According to the Tashkent Collective Security Treaty of May 15, 1992, signed by, among other countries, Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, any attack on any of the parties will be regarded as an attack on all. However, less than a month later, power in Azerbaijan passed into the hands of the pro-Turkish government of Elchibey. When threats were made against Armenia from Turkey in connection with the crisis in the Nakhichevan region in mid-May 1992, Russian Secretary of State G. Burbulis and Defense Minister P. Grachev paid a visit to Yerevan in order to discuss specific ways to implement the agreement on collective security: this was a clear signal that Russia will not leave Armenia alone. The United States issued a corresponding warning to the Turkish side, and the Russian authorities warned Armenia against invading Nakhichevan. Plans for Turkish intervention were canceled.

Another incident, in September 1993, led to a dramatic increase in Russia's role in the region. When fighting broke out again in Nakhichevan, Iranian troops entered the autonomous region to guard a jointly managed reservoir; they also entered the Goradiz point in the “continental” part of Azerbaijan, ostensibly to provide assistance to Azerbaijani refugees. According to Armen Khalatyan, an analyst at the Moscow Institute for Humanitarian-Political Studies, an appeal by the Azerbaijani authorities to Turkey for military assistance could provoke an armed conflict between Turkish and Russian units guarding the Armenian border, as well as a clash with the Iranians who had already entered Nakhichevan. Baku was thus faced with a choice: either allow the conflict to grow to uncontrollable proportions, or turn its face to Moscow. Aliyev chose the latter, thereby allowing Russia to restore its influence along the entire perimeter of the Transcaucasian border of the CIS, which effectively took Turkey and Iran out of the game.

On the other hand, condemning each subsequent seizure of even more territory by the NKR troops of Azerbaijan, Russia continued to supply Azerbaijan with weapons, while at the same time silently taking advantage of Armenian victories on the battlefield to ensure the rise to power of a government in Azerbaijan that would better listen to Russian interests ( i.e., the Aliyev government instead of the Elchibey government) - a calculation that was justified only in the short term, and not in the long term. At the end of June 1993, Aliyev suspended a deal between Baku and a consortium of eight leading Western firms (including British Petroleum, Amoco and Pennsoil) to develop three Azerbaijani oil fields. The route of the proposed oil pipeline, which was previously supposed to go to the Turkish coast Mediterranean Sea, now had to pass through Novorossiysk - at least that’s what the Russians hoped. The Russian press suggested that the pipeline, if it bypassed Russia, could actually free Central Asia, Kazakhstan, and perhaps even the oil-rich Muslim republics of Russia itself from Russian influence, whereas previously the oil wealth of these regions had flowed to the world market only through Russia.