External factors at the beginning of 2017 contributed to the strengthening of the ruble. An increase in oil prices ensures positive dynamics of the Russian currency, but excessive strengthening will deal a blow to the domestic economy.
In such conditions, experts expect a gradual increase in the dollar exchange rate, which is recorded in the forecast for April 2017
Oil optimism
Compared to last year, the beginning of 2017 contributes to the depreciation of the dollar. The cost of a barrel fluctuates at $54-57, which strengthens the position of the Russian currency. In the same period last year, quotes for “black gold” were at the level of $30 per barrel.
In the near future, oil will continue to maintain its regained positions, analysts say. OPEC countries adhere to the agreements reached and reduce oil production volumes. If other exporters do not increase supplies, the market will soon return to balance. Moderate growth in American oil production will not be able to change this trend.
Despite repeated statements by officials, the position of the ruble remains dependent on fluctuations in oil prices, notes Yuri Arkhangelsky, a representative of KIT Finance Broker. A change in the price of “black gold” by 10% ensures a corresponding movement of the dollar exchange rate by 7%.
The favorable situation in the oil market ensures a depreciation of the dollar, but experts warn of the negative consequences of this trend. A strong ruble will hinder the development of exports, while the budget will be deprived of significant revenues. As a result, significant potential has emerged for the weakening of the Russian currency.
The dollar is preparing to rise
Alpari analyst Anna Bodrova allows for two scenarios. The optimistic scenario assumes a moderate increase in the dollar exchange rate to 62-65 rubles/dollar. If external factors will develop less favorably, then the value of the American currency will reach 65-70 rubles.
Chief economist of Alfa Bank Natalia Orlova notes the excessive optimism of the oil market associated with the OPEC decision. Cartel members rarely adhere to established quotas, which can disrupt the existing agreement.
Another factor that contributed to the strengthening of the ruble was the expectation of an early lifting of Western sanctions associated with the election of a new US president. However, recent statements by Donald Trump indicate that the parties have yet to find a solution to most controversial issues.
A further depreciation of the dollar will become a problem for the domestic economy, experts say. These trends will force the government to take countermeasures.
Strengthening problems
A strong ruble will pose a challenge to restoring economic growth. The head of the Ministry of Agriculture, Alexander Tkachev, emphasizes the negative consequences of the excessive strengthening of the Russian currency. The minister believes that not only will he suffer agriculture, whose representatives lose revenue from exports, but also other sectors of the economy. As a result, economic growth will be in serious doubt, which could lead to a protracted period of stagnation.
Increase in the dollar exchange rate to 65-70 rubles/dollar. will help solve several pressing issues at once. First of all, the budget will receive additional revenues that will be required to cover the existing deficit. Reserve Fund reserves were used to cover the deficit last year. Increased export earnings will help the government meet social obligations without resorting to new borrowing.
In addition, export-oriented companies will be able to strengthen their competitive positions, which will become an additional growth driver for the economy. Previously, devaluation helped mitigate the negative consequences of the crisis, but in the current conditions, domestic enterprises are losing their advantages.
To weaken the ruble, the government and the Central Bank can use currency interventions. The regulator has repeatedly stated its intention to restore the volume of gold and foreign exchange reserves.
In April 2017, the dollar exchange rate will resume its growth, which is reflected in the expert forecast. The rise in oil prices contributes to the strengthening of the ruble, but this trend threatens the resumption of economic growth.
The optimistic forecast of experts assumes an increase in the dollar exchange rate to 63-65 rubles/dollar. At the same time, the pessimistic scenario allows for the weakening of the ruble to 65-70 rubles/dollar.
In addition, analysts do not rule out a new collapse in prices on the oil market. If OPEC representatives disrupt the implementation of the agreement to reduce oil production, then prices will resume their decline. As a result, the ruble's position will come under pressure, which will lead to a more significant increase in the dollar exchange rate.
13:48 — REGNUM The first quarter of 2017, including March 2017, brought success to the Russian ruble. Thus, in March, the ruble strengthened against the dollar by 3.8%, ending the month at below 56 rubles. per dollar, and against the euro - by 2.7%, falling below 60 rubles. per euro. During the first quarter, the ruble rose by 6.3% against the dollar and by 5.2% against the euro. The key factors for the strengthening of the ruble in March and the first quarter were the unexpected decline interest rate Bank of Russia from 10% to 9.75%, as well as a slowdown in the rate of decline in Russian GDP, she told the correspondent IA REGNUM Deputy Director of the Analytical Department at Alpari Natalia Milchakova.
In her opinion, “a significant contribution to the strengthening of the ruble was also made by modest official inflation, which in January-February of this year turned out to be very low and amounted to only 0.8%, including in February - only 0.2%. Let us remind you that at the end of 2017, the budget forecasts inflation to rise by 4% per year. Low inflation rates motivated the Bank of Russia to make an unexpected, albeit small, reduction in the interest rate.”
“It is noteworthy that Brent oil fell by 5.8% in March, and by about 5% in the first quarter, while the ruble showed a noticeable strengthening especially in March. Thus, we can conclude that the price of oil today does not have such a strong impact on the ruble as it did 2-3 years ago,” she said. expert
The dynamics of the ruble and world currencies in April will be affected by the following events:
“In April, Russia will publish official statistics on inflation and other macroeconomic indicators of Russia for March, as well as, most importantly, data on Russia’s GDP and volume industrial production for the first quarter of 2017. The data will have short-term significance for the ruble exchange rate. Apparently, the ruble may strengthen even further on positive data on GDP and industrial production, even breaking through the resistance of 55 rubles. per dollar, but if the data turns out to be worse than market expectations, the ruble may stop growing.
But the most important events for world currencies, which ultimately may affect the ruble, will occur in the last ten days of April. Thus, the first round of the presidential elections in France is scheduled for April 23. In the event of victory in the first round of the opposition candidate, the leader of the National Front of France Marine Le Pen, which is a well-known and quite radical Eurosceptic, the euro may fall against the dollar, which will simultaneously contribute to the growth of the ruble against the euro.
According to preliminary data from opinion polls, Marine Le Pen is still the leader in the presidential race, but according to the results of the first televised debate, viewers awarded victory to the supporter of keeping France in the eurozone Emmanuel Macron. If the leadership in the first round of the presidential election nevertheless goes to Macron, then, accordingly, the euro may rise against both the dollar and the ruble. But the medium-term trend in the movement of the euro and the ruble/euro exchange rate for the current year can only be judged in May, after the end of the second round of the presidential elections.
In addition, the Serbian presidential elections on April 9 and the referendum on amendments to the Turkish constitution on April 16 could lead to the fact that a Eurosceptic candidate who opposes Serbia’s accession to the EU will again win in Serbia, and amendments to the Turkish constitution will only strengthen the power of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and perhaps this will further cool relations between Turkey and the EU, which will add a negative background and pessimism to the euro.
In the USA, the lack of a clear economic policy at the office Donald Trump so far contributes to the weakening of the dollar, and we expect it to continue in April until Donald Trump clearly formulates his economic program. The next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, where questions about the Fed's actions regarding interest rates are decided, will not be held until May, which will add uncertainty to the dollar in April.
In Russia, the board of directors of the Central Bank will meet for the next meeting on April 28. Whether a decision will be made at this meeting to further reduce the interest rate is an open question. Most likely, the Central Bank will not rush into a new portion of rate cuts, unless the oil price reaches $60 per barrel, and unless inflation goes even lower than the levels of the first quarter. A new rate cut may contribute to a new wave of ruble growth, however, most likely, a new reduction is unlikely.
The price of oil, if it remains at levels of at least $50 per barrel in April, will contribute to the fact that the ruble exchange rate will continue to tend to strengthen. However, if negative news comes from OPEC or other negative events on the oil market, the price may fall below this level, which will lead to a short-term “trip” of the dollar to the level of 60 rubles per dollar,” Milchakova expressed her opinion.
“I believe that until the end of April the dollar will trade in the range of 55-60 rubles per dollar, and the euro at levels of 58-62 rubles. In the medium term, the stability of the ruble will depend both on the price of oil and on macroeconomic signals sent to the foreign exchange market by the real sector of the economy,” the expert concluded.
Dollar exchange rate forecast for 2017 by month. Expert opinion on the prospects for the USD/RUB pair exchange rate.
What will happen to the dollar in the near future?
Despite the positive dynamics of the Russian currency at the end of 2016 and the beginning of 2017, the interest of Russians in the foreign exchange market still remains high. Unfortunately, it is almost impossible to clearly predict the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate, however, specifically at your request, we interviewed 8 independent experts and compiled a table with consensus forecasts for the dollar exchange rate by month for 2017. The forecast is given at the end of the period (month). If expert ratings change, the table will be updated.
The majority of analysts surveyed believe that in 2017 the USD/RUB pair will continue to gradually strengthen against the Russian ruble.
According to analysts, in the fall of 2017 the dollar exchange rate may return above 65 rubles, and at the end of the year it may reach 68 rubles.
As economists interviewed by our editors explain, anti-Russian sanctions remain a serious risk factor for the ruble, as well as the active development of the shale industry in the United States. Data coming from the US Department of Energy confirms these fears: the number of drilling rigs in the US has continued to grow steadily since May 2016.
Besides, negative influence The monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation may affect the ruble exchange rate in Russia. It is expected that the Bank of Russia will continue to reduce the key rate in the second half of 2017 (forecasts can be viewed). This factor may play against the ruble.
By the way, analysts at the brokerage company Sberbank also predict a depreciation of the ruble in the second half of 2017. In their opinion, this will be facilitated, among other things, by the Ministry of Finance’s interventions in the foreign exchange market, as well as the deterioration of the balance of payments.
Chapter Ministry of Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin believes that the current ruble exchange rate will not change in the coming months:
The factors that influenced the ruble in the first half of the year are no longer so important, and we expect the ruble to be quite stable and remain around current values. Which we consider reasonable. We expect a stable ruble in the coming months
The department revised the average annual dollar exchange rate in 2017 - it was 64.2 rubles, now it is 59.7 rubles. The average annual exchange rate in 2018 will be 64.7 rubles.
Dollar forecast for 2018 by month. Table
| Month | Average forecast at the end of the month, rub. |
| February 2017 | 59,62 |
| March 2017 | 58,73 |
| April 2017 | 58,94 |
| May 2017 | 59,42 |
| June 2017 | 59,54 |
| July 2017 | 60,08 |
| August 2017 | 61,01 |
| September 2017 | 59,43 |
| October 2017 | 59,11 |
| November 2017 | 61,10 |
| December | 62,32 |
Dollar exchange rate forecast for September 2017
The consensus forecast for the dollar to ruble exchange rate for September 2017 is 59.43 rubles.
Dollar exchange rate forecast for October 2017
The consensus forecast for the dollar to ruble exchange rate for September 2017 is 59.11 rubles.
Dollar exchange rate forecast for November 2017
The consensus forecast for the dollar to ruble exchange rate for November 2017 is 61.10 rubles.
Dollar exchange rate forecast for December 2017
The consensus forecast for the dollar to ruble exchange rate for December 2017 is 62.23 rubles.
In modern economic conditions, probably every citizen of our country, regardless of his financial status, position in society and position, is interested in learning latest dollar exchange rate forecast for April 2017.
The country's population has been prepared for surprises regarding the exchange rate since the moment the sanctions came into force. According to experts, this year we should expect changes in relations between states and countries, and this should stimulate the stabilization of the currency.
However, for now dollar exchange rate forecast for April cannot be called stable. This is ensured by the fact that a quarter of the year has already passed, and there is still no sign of an end to the geopolitical and economic aggravation. But here, too, experts support the population with promises that, as a last resort, our country will be able to take advantage of dormant reserves in order to maintain the exchange rate.
Ruble exchange rate forecast for April 2017
Opinions about what ruble exchange rate in April 2017 It's worth the wait for the citizens to disperse. Although if you look at the foreign policy situation, the continued growth of tension in relations with other states, then there is not much faith in stabilization. After all, it is the national currency that first of all comes under the influence of political tension. And we are not immune to the fact that ruble exchange rate will rise to seventy rubles per dollar. But if the situation finally begins to improve, then the dollar will become cheaper, at least a little. Some forecasters say that already in the dollar it will cost at least sixty-two rubles, and soybeans will begin to move upward.
Although in recent months ruble exchange rate Somehow we managed to keep it within certain limits, despite the frightening forecasts of some political scientists and experts. In the ministry economic development they say that citizens should not start panicking because of exchange rate jumps, since there will be no changes, because financiers are already preparing in advance to avoid the experience of 2014. But talk about how much will the dollar cost in April 2017, there is no 100% guarantee. If you build a long-term forecast, then, in principle, you can count on a gradual depreciation of the exchange rate, but, nevertheless, at the end of last year, when drawing up the budget program for three years, the Ministry of Finance took into account possible fluctuations from sixty-seven to seventy-one rubles per dollar. Fresh dollar exchange rate forecast for April 2017 directly depends on the following factors:
- Deteriorating economic situation in the People's Republic of China;
- Reducing the cost of petroleum products;
- New backup system United States and the new president.
Dollar exchange rate forecast for April USD/RUB 2017
Dollar exchange rate forecast for April has the following limits: 63\1 – the maximum allowable, 58\1 – the most loyal, and the average value – 59\1. But, unfortunately, all the data suggests that you should not wait for the minimum exchange rate; it is better to prepare for a rise in the dollar and another decline in the ruble. This is also explained by the fact that the number of investors who were ready to invest in our economy decreased sharply due to the imposed sanctions, and the growth own production minor. Moreover, prices on the oil market have undergone strong changes, and the decline in the cost of a barrel greatly affects the economic situation of the country, and ruble exchange rate, accordingly, too.
And despite the fact that many long-term and medium-term forecasts were compiled both last year and at the beginning of this year, no one undertakes to guarantee this or that behavior of the national currency. And therefore, the residents of the country, being in a state of uncertainty, are constantly forced to doubt which currency is worth saving and which to exchange. Since it is stable dollar exchange rate in April 2017 no one promises, it is better to save your savings in several currencies at once.
March 11 at 19.50 Moscow time. Important changes have been made to the Dollar (USD) forecast calculations to take into account future events. Prospects By the end of the month the rate will decrease and amount to 64.02 rubles. for 1 dollar, this will be facilitated by a number of previous events in changes in economic factors within the country. About calculations The indicated Dollar (USD) values are predicted based on factors and events collected by the methodologists of our bureau, and may be incorrect to one degree or another. Calculations can be adjusted by methodologists depending on changes in factors affecting the exchange rate, creating a fresh forecast. More details about the methods for calculating forecasts can be found in the “Methodology” section. The accuracy of our forecasts, according to various sources, ranges from 70 to 95%.A decrease in the value of a currency is usually observed:- by the beginning of each quarter - when the inflation rate in the country decreases - when the price of oil rises - when domestic demand for their own goods increases 
Factors, causing changes in the exchange rate, can be predicted and unexpected. Forecasted events include events whose occurrence is known in advance. Unexpected factors may include disasters or cataclysms, for example: earthquakes, epidemics, tsunamis.